It’s [Probably] Already Fall

I know recently it’s become much more accepted that the fall run begins in August in much of Striper-dom, but I want to throw my weight behind this concept and really insist. The fall run absolutely, one-hundred percent starts in August. There are two major reasons I believe deeply in this, and a reason I think many anglers refuse to accept it.

First, the classical “fall fishing” that most of us think about is highly dependent on young of the year bait developing, and bait of all sizes starting to conjugate before migrating. Without questions, both of these things have been fully rolling for weeks. It’s totally bananas to say this, but for me in several of my different locations – I won’t even narrow it to spots – this can occur during a very late JULY moon! I can’t bring myself to accept that emotionally, but it’s true. But by the tail end of the 8th month of the year, especially once we pass a late or mid-month large tide moon, that bait is going to be in the surf. Hell, I was just in the surf the other night and the peanuts were so thick you could practically walk across them.

Yet, it’s the second factor that really moves things along in my mind. A storm of any kind. It doesn’t have to be a Nor’easter and 55-degrees. It doesn’t have to be a raging hurricane with a six-foot tidal surge. But if there is a front, a wind event, a series of storms, it really kicks things into gear. The thing is, this can happen on August 17th, and if the moon is on August 20th (it’s not this year) that week could be a subtle but real shift towards new fish and bait behaviors – that single shuffle of the deck can kick things off. Wait for crisp fall air and low humidity and you’re going to miss it. In particular, the full moon being on August 28th this year means that I’m going to be thinking fall that week, regardless if there’s been a storm. That moon falls a measly four days before September anyways. The calendar really means nothing regardless. So I’ll be poking around looking for concentrations of peanuts… but my laser focus will be on trying to track down mullet.

I think a lot of surfcasters can accept this, but just as many cannot. If you can’t, ask yourself why that is. Is it because the days are still too long? Is it because you perceive the water as still being too warm? Is it because you’re still in summer mode because the kids are still home? Is it because you still haven’t gone on vacation? Or is it because you’re still burnt out from the spring and early summer fishing? Those reasons – which I boil down to a single reason, denial – have no bearing on whether it’s fall or fall-adjacent fishing. I do not believe the bait or fish wait until water reaches a certain temperature, which is the primary component so many wait for. Instead they cue on the sun, moon, the size of the bait, and any jarring weather events. Chances are that will all happen this year in August, as it has every season before it.

Want some motivation? Go listen to season 2 episode 30 “What’s the best part of catching striped bass in the surf?”


Discover more from

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

2 thoughts on “It’s [Probably] Already Fall”

  1. I start before the temp changes now for a few reasons: I rather be early than late to the start of the season. There are less anglers at your spots when you start early. The 30” striper on my line in late March this year agrees as well.

  2. We definitely been getting hit with enough storms this year. I always start looking for mullet inside the inlets here, and or the elusive weakfish. I’ve hit the “stray” bass never with enough consistency to set a pattern this early. But that never stops me.

Leave a Reply

Discover more from

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading